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Using economic indicators to create an empirical model of inflation

Kasera et al. | Dec 01, 2022

Using economic indicators to create an empirical model of inflation

Here, seeking to understand the correlation of 50 of the most important economic indicators with inflation, the authors used a rolling linear regression to identify indicators with the most significant correlation with the Month over Month Consumer Price Index Seasonally Adjusted (CPI). Ultimately the concluded that the average gasoline price, U.S. import price index, and 5-year market expected inflation had the most significant correlation with the CPI.

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