Is the NFL Combine predictive of a defensive lineman’s NFL career?

Many employers test the productivity and skills of potential employees prior to hiring them. The National Football League (NFL) uses the NFL Combine to put potential players through a series of five athletic drills (40-yard dash, 20-yard shuttle, vertical jump, broad jump, and bench press) before they are drafted. However, there is little evidence on whether the NFL Combine predicts future success for one key position: defensive linemen. A defensive lineman’s job is to tackle the quarterback and stop run plays. We measure their success in two ways: pass rush grade (a player’s ability to tackle the quarterback before they can pass the football) and run defense grade (a player’s ability to tackle the running back). We used multiple linear regression analysis to test the hypothesis that a defensive lineman’s Combine performance is not correlated with their performance in the NFL over their observed career. We controlled for college performance, weight, and height because these factors can predict NFL performance on their own. We found no statistically significant correlation between Combine drills and a player’s NFL performance, with the exception of the 40-yard dash, which showed slightly significant correlation with a player’s NFL pass rush grade. This suggests that NFL scouts should focus on college performance for defensive linemen, but could place some weight on the 40-yard dash done at the NFL Combine.